Rained out

What a disappointment.

Readers that tuned into yesterday's posting will recall the building excitement over the weather forecast. As a reminder, NOAA had issued a severe winter storm warning calling for heavy snow in the Cascades. More specifically, 2' to 4'.

Well, this is Oregon, and you can't trust the forecast.

I rose at 6:30 am, and looked at the clock/thermometer that sits on my dresser. It read 38 degrees F. My rule of thumb (which has proven quite reliable over the course of many seasons) is that if it is below 45 degrees in town (elev. 750' at our house), then it will be below freezing at the Pass (elev. 5,200'). I've known about this effect (called the "lapse rate") since I learned about it as a sophomore in college. The lapse rate varies depending on the amount of moisture in the particular mass of air. The "dry adiabatic lapse rate" (for dry air masses) is a temperature decrease of about 3 degrees C (5.4 degrees F) per thousand feet of altitude, while the "wet adiabatic lapse rate" (for moist air masses) is a temperature decrease of about 1.5 degrees C per thousand feet of altitude (2.7 degrees F).

Here's the arithmetic:

Elevation difference: 4,450'
times 2.7 degrees F/1000'
equals ~12 degrees F
45 degrees F - 12 degrees F = 33 degrees F

We'll fudge it a bit to account for differences between the dry and wet adiabatic lapse rate and call it 32 degrees. Wha-la.

As it turns out, temperature fluctuations are affected by more than the adiabatic lapse rate. One of the more important factors is the latitude at which the storms originate. Storms with more northerly origins tend to be colder, and storms with more southerly origins tend to be warmer.

Well, duh.

This particular storm seemed to have a very constant temperature profile. My unscientific observations on the drive up were that it was about 32 degrees and raining in Oakridge (elev. 2000'). It was still 32 degrees by the time we arrived at the Pass at 9 am. But, the rain turned to snow at about 5,000 feet. A relief, but not a particularly good sign that early in the morning.

We steeled up our courage and braved the elements anyway.

Diane and I about got killed on the first ride when the lifty did not put the seat cushion down as we boarded. I tried, unsuccessfully, to flip it down as it came around the bullwheel. Diane tried to skate out of the way, also unsuccessfully. So we both bailed in the pit just beyond the boarding line while the lifty hit the stop button. Another first on the last day of 2009.

I managed to remember to put the memory card back into the camera; thus, I was able to document some of the day's events.

Here's the accumulated result of the past two storms. We got 4" of sludge on top of the 12-15" inches of fluff the night before.

It might be wet, but it makes good base.

Tyler tagged along today. Dylan and Tyler contemplating their next move.

Which was a trip down Timburr.

Dylan smooths out the sludge on the bottom of Eagle's Flight.

Method Man.

Dylan takes the log ride through the woods.

Right before the photo above, I got bit by an alligator. It jumped right out of the snow, chomped my ankle and threw me down. Dylan witnessed the entire unpleasant episode. Someone call the game warden.

By 10:00 am, the snow was turning to rain at the base; by 10:30, it was a full on downpour. Nothing like a little rain on snow action to take iffy conditions and make them despicable.

Diane quit around 10:30, I toughed it out until 11. By then, I was getting soaked and the snow was getting thick, sticky, and treacherous. Dylan and Tyler came in around 11:45--under duress. They were ready to tough it out.

Not me, I'm old enough and have enough good ski days behind me that I don't need to suffer through the bad ones. I got a couple of ok runs and 10k of vertical today, which made the trip worthwhile.

By the time we got back to town it was 51 degrees F. Balmy.

Things aren't looking so good for tomorrow. Looks like our 2'-4' of snow is going to be more like 4" with 2"-4" of rain on top. The temperature at the Pass was 36 degrees F at 5pm, and it's probably going to be 50 in town again tomorrow. They'll probably get more snow tonight, but it's not the kind that makes me excited. It looks like a repeat of last year (see http://fortheloveofsnow.blogspot.com/2009/01/days-of-skiing-past.html). So much for the tradition of skiing on New Year's day.

I doubt I'll write tomorrow... but I'll get up at 6:30 am and check the weather report. I'm not optimistic--our local weather guy says snow levels won't drop to 5,000 until noon tomorrow--way too late to bother. Besides it's the Ducks of Oregon vs. the Buckeyes of Ohio in the Rose Bowl. Go Ducks!

Anyway, that's all that's left of 2009, so goodbye naughties, hello tweens (or whatever those people that make up such names will choose to name this coming decade). The change in decades comes even less frequently than a blue moon (which is also occurring tonight--too bade we won't see it). Here's to good cheer and lots of great ski days in the coming year!

Merry New Year!